We are hearing a lot about the “One Big Beautiful Bill” that has passed the US House and is now in the hands of the Senate. Opponents of the federal spending bill have been sounding the alarm, expressing concern over steep cuts to programs supporting early childhood education, supplemental nutrition, and healthcare. Others have argued that lawmakers should be even more aggressive with their cuts to such programs and are upset that the House bill still increases US debt by $3.8 trillion despite existing cuts.

Trillion? Once I start having to count commas instead of zeroes I really need to step back for some perspective.

Here in the Dan River Region our median household income is under $60,000. In many localities, that median household income is still well below $40,000 with one even dipping below $30,000.

$3.8 trillion. A $3,800,000,000,000 increase in debt. What does that even look like?

Some simple math might offer some perspective. The TOTAL annual operating budget of ALL local government and public school systems within the Dan River Region (Caswell, Danville, Pittsylvania) is approximately $979,994,000.

$3.8 trillion would fully fund all local governments and public schools in the region for nearly 4,000 years.

Fortunately others have done the more complicated math and given us an idea of what to expect if the bill passes the Senate in its current form.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) reports on budgetary effects can be found here and details the impact the of the proposed budget.

In their Preliminary Analysis of the Distributional Effects, the CBO estimates that “if the legislation was enacted, U.S. households, on average, would see an increase in the resources provided to them by the government over the 2026–2034 period. The changes would not be evenly distributed among households. The agency estimates that in general, resources would decrease for households in the lowest decile (tenth) of the income distribution, whereas resources would increase for households in the highest decile.”

The analysis also highlights the following budgetary effects for the 2026–2034 period:

• An increase in the federal deficit of $3.8 trillion attributable to tax changes, including extending provisions of the 2017 tax act, which includes revenues and outlays for refundable credits.
• $698 billion less in federal subsidies from changes to the Medicaid program.
• $267 billion less in federal spending for SNAP.
• $64 billion less in spending, on net, for all other purposes. That includes increases in outlays for defense, immigration enforcement, and homeland security. Those are offset by reductions in federal pensions, receipts from spectrum auctions, and changes in receipts and outlays associated with changes to emissions regulations.
• $78 billion in additional state spending, on net, accounting for changes in state contributions to SNAP and Medicaid and for state tax and spending policies necessary to finance additional spending

Some are also sounding the alarm over one paragraph in Section 70302 of the bill that organizations like the Campaign Legal Center say would “severely restrict federal courts’ authority to hold government officials in contempt if they violate judicial orders.”

The Christian Science Monitor recently summarized that, “The provision holds that no federal court “may use appropriated funds” to enforce a contempt-of-court citation for failing to comply with an injunction or temporary restraining order “if no security was given when the injunction or order was issued.” In effect, anyone wanting to sue the federal government to stop an action or policy would need to pay a bond for the judge to be able to enforce an order blocking the action or policy from being implemented.”

Others have expressed concern about another provision in the bill that would prevent states from enforcing exiting or creating new laws regulating AI for 10 years. THIS RECENT ARTICLE from The Brookings Institute explores the types of legislation states have been introducing in the absence of federal regulations.

Meanwhile the Council of Foundations has released THIS ANALYSIS of how the One Big Beautiful Bill is expected to impact philanthropy and charitable giving.

Residents of the Dan River Region are encouraged to explore the provisions and anticipated impacts of the bill and share any concerns or suggestions with their US Senator.

You can reach the offices of Virginia Senators Mark Warner and Tim Kaine and North Carolina Senators Thom Tillis and Ted Budd by calling the US Capitol Switchboard at (202) 224-3121.

Once the Senate approves their version of the bill, it will have to go back to the House for a final vote. Lawmakers have said they hope to pass the spending bill by July 4th.